Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:54:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
96 0x963c…3122 sports 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$257 (+12%) realized +$224 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%21W / 31L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$492now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$102
7 days−$115
14 days+$125
30 days+$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$190
other 45% +$49
politics 1% $0
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -17.4% -25.2% 34% 34% -20.5%
≤30d 52 -5.1% -14.1% 40% 40% +3.1%
≤90d 52 -5.1% -14.1% 40% 40% +3.1%
all 52 -5.1% -14.1% 40% 40% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 40% +3.1%
10% -22.4% 40% -6.8%
15% -29.9% 38% -15.8%
20% -36.7% 35% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$15 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$492
Realized+$224
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses21 / 31
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions6
Markets (closed)52 / 58
History coverage37d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $54 $119 +$66 (+123%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $178 $117 −$61 (-34%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $86 $102 +$16 (+19%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $59 $60 +$2 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $58 $59 +$1 (+2%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 17¢ 22¢ $25 $34 +$9 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $20 +$29 +144%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $47 −$37 -78%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $17 −$13 -74%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $50 +$36 +72%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $18 +$11 +59%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $11 +$7 +61%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $18 −$8 -43%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AN Jun 20 $15 +$29 +189%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $53 −$14 -25%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $53 +$24 +45%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $27 −$11 -42%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $23 +$25 +111%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $28 +$32 +117%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$14 +67%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 −$4 -28%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $18 +$22 +117%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $16 −$7 -42%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $35 −$15 -43%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$6 -56%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $22 +$28 +129%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -47%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $20 +$6 +31%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $29 −$24 -85%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$8 -26%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$15 +73%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $22 −$9 -38%
Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-1.5) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$30 +100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $44 +$64 +144%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$54 +107%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $41 +$58 +143%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $38 +$22 +59%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $53 +$54 +101%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $32 −$18 -57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $88 +$31 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 3¢ $3 18m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 61¢ $30 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $24 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 97¢ $49 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 39¢ $20 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 31¢ $2 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 31¢ $4 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 31¢ $7 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 SELL Over 15¢ $10 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 SELL Over 9¢ $4 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $11 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $5 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 95¢ $48 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $15 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $47 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 SELL Over 97¢ $4 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 SELL Over 97¢ $20 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 SELL Over 97¢ $5 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 96¢ $38 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $18 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 92¢ $18 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $13 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $1 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $9 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $1 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $11 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $491.51 · official $491.99 (match) · 192 history records