Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:40:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x963f…0a5c politics 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 628d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%3W / 79L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 86% −$15
economics 12% −$2
other 2% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 82 -1.7% -11.1% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

628d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses3 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage628d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $99 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $49 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $49 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 03 $50 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $50 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 10 $51 $0 -1%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $51 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $51 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Sesko be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem Feb 06 $48 $0 -0%
Will Tyler Glasnow win the 2025 NL Cy Young? Nov 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will DeMar DeRozan lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Valencia CF win La Liga? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal CF win La Liga? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Trump $83.3m verdict reduced on appeal? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
James Norton announced as next James Bond? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2024? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tyreek Hill be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Alexandre de Moraes jail in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Chris Jones win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ja’Marr Chase be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Doug Burgum be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Astaria airdrop in 2024? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Malik Nabers win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Dec 20 $0 $0 -0%
Will Nicolae Ciucă win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Dec 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will Sean McDermott win NFL Coach of the Year? Dec 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will Jamie Vardy be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Hunter Biden sentenced to 1-5 months in gun case? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Bills win the AFC East? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Increase in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? Nov 26 $0 $0 -0%
Will Quinn Ewers win the Heisman Trophy? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? Nov 26 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 14h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 8d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 11d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 14d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 14d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 14d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $49 22d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $49 23d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 31d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 32d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 36d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 36d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 41d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 42d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 42d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $49 45d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $49 46d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $50 62d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $50 62d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 66d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 67d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $50 72d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $50 73d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $50 77d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $50 77d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 81d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 82d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $50 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 199 history records