Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:50:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x963f…4487 crypto 1300 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ bot/MM pace (103 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,785 (-6%) realized −$1,785 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%583W / 787L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day102.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,995
7 days−$2,843
14 days−$2,561
30 days−$2,873
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$258
sports 2% −$91
other 1% −$25
world 0% −$15
politics 0% $0
finance 0% −$4
weather 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (103 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 505 -47.4% -52.4% 25% 21% -24.1%
≤30d 1304 -14.1% -22.2% 42% 38% -17.7%
≤90d 1370 -13.5% -21.7% 43% 39% -17.6%
all 1370 -13.5% -21.7% 43% 39% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover102.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.7% 39% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -29.2% 35% -25.5%
15% -36.0% 31% -32.7%
20% -42.3% 26% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,785
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses583 / 787
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1370 / 1300
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day102.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1370 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -108%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 11? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -122%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -90%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-05? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$15 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $29 −$30 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$14 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-10? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $51 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records