Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9641…55d1 sports 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,307 (-11%) realized −$1,304 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%48W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day39.3pace
Fees−$187est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$1,056
other 29% −$467
crypto 11% −$71
world 1% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -7.7% -16.5% 42% 37% -22.0%
≤30d 114 -7.7% -16.5% 42% 37% -22.0%
≤90d 114 -7.7% -16.5% 42% 37% -22.0%
all 114 -7.7% -16.5% 42% 37% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 37% -22.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 31% -29.5%
15% -31.8% 29% -36.3%
20% -38.5% 22% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$82 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized−$1,304
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses48 / 66
Est. fees paid−$187
Open positions2
Markets (closed)114 / 116
History coverage6d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day39.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Ghana leading at halftime? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $156 −$156 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 +$49 +48%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $102 +$50 +49%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -5%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$12 -59%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$9 -42%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $153 −$7 -4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $102 −$4 -4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $203 +$142 +70%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $508 −$18 -4%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $102 +$135 +133%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$27 +26%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 +$38 +37%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 +$21 +20%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $257 −$52 -20%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 +$6 +6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 +$16 +15%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $102 −$18 -18%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$49 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $102 −$54 -53%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $102 +$107 +105%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $25 +$14 +58%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $20 +$2 +10%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$16 +16%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $51 +$118 +230%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -5%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $205 +$228 +111%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $20 +$48 +234%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 +$18 +176%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $21 +$139 +676%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -43%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 15 $153 −$153 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $304 −$304 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 15 $609 −$320 -52%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $307 −$307 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $203 +$167 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 4m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 5m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $102 3h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 41¢ $0 5h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 45¢ $153 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 46¢ $151 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 17¢ $20 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $102 5h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $102 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $101 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $12 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 12h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $203 12h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $147 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 35¢ $98 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $102 21h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $153 22h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $156 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.88 · official $196.88 (match) · 299 history records