Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:47:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
96 0x9648…846d sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$58 (-4%) realized −$55 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +110% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +82% what you keep after slip
Net edge+82%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$132
14 days+$102
30 days+$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$196
other 12% −$36
crypto 4% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+89.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +123.0% +101.7% 44% 44% -16.4%
≤30d 17 +109.9% +89.9% 41% 41% -18.2%
≤90d 17 +109.9% +89.9% 41% 41% -18.2%
all 17 +109.9% +89.9% 41% 41% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +89.9% 41% -18.2%
10% +71.7% 41% -26.0%
15% +55.1% 41% -33.2%
20% +39.9% 41% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +110% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +49% → late +164% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$69 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized−$55
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions5
Markets (closed)17 / 22
History coverage11d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $30 $41 +$11 (+37%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+18%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $30 $21 −$9 (-30%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $102 +$235 +229%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $41 −$34 -82%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $112 −$6 -5%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$30 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $172 −$170 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$83 +81%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $304 −$300 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$100 +325%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $61 +$83 +135%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $305 +$247 +81%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 87¢ $4 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 87¢ $329 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 26¢ $102 13h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 44¢ $0 13h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 44¢ $106 13h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 14h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $112 14h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 54¢ $51 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $51 32h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 33h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 33h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 33h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 33h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $152 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 91¢ $3 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 91¢ $182 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $51 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $51 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 31¢ $51 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $253 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $52 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 84¢ $0 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $552 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $305 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.30 · official $142.30 (match) · 52 history records