Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:18:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

96
0x9648…6825
world · 54 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$702,235 -65%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,006,002 · open +$162,984
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$3,621,694
Realized−$1,006,002
Unrealized+$162,984
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses33 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Open positions69
Markets (closed)165 / 54
Avg bet$20,050
Trades / day769.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 69 History 165 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$956,949
7 days−$1,006,002
14 days−$1,006,002
30 days−$1,006,002
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 86¢ 99¢ $539,024 $614,977 +$75,953 (+14%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $564,668 $597,029 +$32,360 (+6%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $531,435 $551,744 +$20,309 (+4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 71¢ 88¢ $280,251 $346,851 +$66,601 (+24%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 64¢ 68¢ $296,586 $312,718 +$16,132 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 66¢ $235,973 $234,886 −$1,087 (-0%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 82¢ 82¢ $136,381 $137,332 +$951 (+1%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $84,370 $85,165 +$795 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $50,495 $50,571 +$76 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 88¢ 86¢ $47,926 $46,952 −$975 (-2%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 68¢ 78¢ $35,944 $41,156 +$5,212 (+15%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 96¢ 88¢ $43,313 $39,621 −$3,692 (-9%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 72¢ 80¢ $34,298 $38,615 +$4,316 (+13%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 68¢ $29,797 $35,483 +$5,686 (+19%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 44¢ 62¢ $22,738 $32,607 +$9,869 (+43%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 64¢ 56¢ $35,535 $31,350 −$4,185 (-12%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $30,417 $30,250 −$166 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 20¢ 28¢ $20,492 $28,568 +$8,076 (+39%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 71¢ 86¢ $22,060 $26,785 +$4,726 (+21%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 39¢ 46¢ $21,998 $25,916 +$3,918 (+18%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $30,520 $25,414 −$5,106 (-17%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 27¢ 18¢ $38,304 $25,084 −$13,220 (-35%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 81¢ $23,748 $23,421 −$327 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 72¢ 78¢ $15,411 $16,681 +$1,270 (+8%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $24,210 $16,575 −$7,635 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Jun 12 $5,304 −$5,304 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 12 $1,454 −$1,454 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 12 $8,392 +$6,766 +81%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 12 $207 −$207 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? Jun 12 $227 −$227 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei Jun 12 $232 −$232 -100%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $922 +$17,080 +1852%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Jun 12 $6,346 −$6,057 -95%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 12 $7,344 −$4,331 -59%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 12 $1,592 +$983 +62%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Jun 12 $2,715 −$1,547 -57%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Jun 12 $61,170 −$61,170 -100%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Jun 12 $67,139 −$67,139 -100%
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 17? Jun 12 $2,580 −$2,580 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 12 $94,911 −$84,815 -89%
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10? Jun 12 $2,144 −$2,144 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Jun 12 $736 −$80,920 -11001%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Jun 12 $257 −$257 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 12 $1,345 +$3,555 +264%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? Jun 12 $0 +$2,223 +9380773%
Khamenei seen in public by March 4? Jun 12 $320 −$320 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $67,858 −$68,127 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $39,158 −$38,852 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 12 $4,941 −$4,941 -100%
Will "BAILE INOLVIDABLE" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sh Jun 12 $4,103 −$4,103 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi Jun 12 $2,866 −$2,866 -100%
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by February 20? Jun 12 $8,037 −$8,037 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1,392 −$1,392 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Jun 12 $947 −$947 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 mi Jun 12 $26,586 −$26,586 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Jun 12 $399 −$399 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 12 $4,765 −$4,765 -100%
Khamenei seen in public by March 7? Jun 12 $254 −$254 -100%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $49,485 −$43,973 -89%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $2 +$7,500 +306365%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 12 $251 +$8,382 +3338%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 12 $377 −$377 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $4,133 −$4,133 -100%
US forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026? Jun 12 $1,199 −$1,199 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026? Jun 12 $6,604 −$6,604 -100%
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Jun 12 $257 −$257 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026? Jun 12 $666 −$666 -100%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Jun 12 $257 −$257 -100%
Will Wicked: For Good be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academ Jun 12 $419 −$419 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Jun 12 $4,094 −$4,094 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 73% +$205,592
other 23% −$95,303
finance 3% +$5,450
tech 0% −$1,807
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $63 0m
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 12m
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 12m
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 12m
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 12m
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 12m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $992 14m
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 21m
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $52 22m
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $25 24m
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $25 24m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $700 25m
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 26m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $2 34m
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $63 36m
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 37m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $256 40m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $58 41m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $3 41m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $307 44m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1,899 45m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $108 45m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $1,007 45m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $26 45m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $22 46m
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $5 47m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $6 48m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $17 48m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $10 51m
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+89.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 165 +109.1% +89.2% 20% 16% -65.5%
≤30d 165 +109.1% +89.2% 20% 16% -65.5%
≤90d 165 +109.1% +89.2% 20% 16% -65.5%
all 165 +109.1% +89.2% 20% 16% -65.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover769.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +89.2% 16% -65.5%
10% +71.1% 16% -68.8%
15% ← realistic here +54.6% 15% -71.8%
20% +39.4% 15% -74.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,621,694.01 · official $3,621,645.99 (match) · 3500 history records