Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:23:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
96 0x964d…88fa crypto 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 566d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$445 (-4%) realized −$445 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate95%38W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$279per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 81% +$4
crypto 8% +$53
sports 5% −$509
tech 2% +$3
other 2% +$1
economics 1% +$1
world 1% +$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 3 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 10 +1.1% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
all 40 +2.6% -7.2% 95% 5% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 5% -12.9%
10% -16.0% 2% -21.3%
15% -24.2% 2% -28.9%
20% -31.6% 2% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$257 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

566d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized−$445
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses38 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage566d
Avg bet$279
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $62 $62 +$0 (+0%)
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 23 $55 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 23 $51 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 23 $55 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 14 $31 +$1 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 14 $63 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 14 $65 +$1 +2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $240 end of March? Apr 09 $47 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 09 $50 +$1 +2%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 15 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Mar 09 $25 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 09 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? Mar 09 $77 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in January? Feb 15 $55 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Feb 15 $60 +$2 +4%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 06 $51 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 06 $57 $0 +1%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 10 $33 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November? Dec 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Nov 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Nov 15 $47 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 22 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? Oct 22 $65 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? Aug 28 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Aug 11 $103 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Jul 11 $97 +$6 +6%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 18 $90 +$7 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 19 $25 +$31 +122%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 22 $29 +$6 +20%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000.00 by March 31? Mar 22 $52 +$2 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $4250 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 05 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Berachain launch in 2024? Feb 13 $13 +$1 +8%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? Feb 13 $37 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Dec 18 $9,514 −$5 -0%
Warriors vs. Nuggets Dec 05 $509 −$509 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Dec 05 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $62 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $56 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $55 40d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 99¢ $55 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $51 40d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $65 75d
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $63 75d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 75d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 100¢ $36 85d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 85d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $26 99d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 106d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $240 end of March? BUY No 99¢ $47 106d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $77 128d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb BUY No 99¢ $25 128d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 128d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $25 128d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $38 168d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in January? BUY No 99¢ $55 168d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? BUY No 96¢ $60 168d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $57 195d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $51 195d
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $33 195d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $40 195d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $39 220d
Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $35 220d
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $33 220d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $60 220d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.55 · official $162.55 (match) · 120 history records