Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:36:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
96 0x964f…b32c world 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$44 (+0%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate35%31W / 57L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days+$12
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$17
politics 27% +$21
sports 21% +$17
other 8% +$1
economics 8% $0
finance 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 22% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 31 +0.5% -9.1% 23% 3% -9.3%
≤90d 44 -1.5% -10.9% 32% 5% -9.1%
all 88 -0.5% -10.0% 35% 5% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 5% -9.1%
10% -18.6% 1% -17.8%
15% -26.5% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.91 per $1 lost it wins $2.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses31 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions2
Markets (closed)88 / 90
History coverage472d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $167 $167 +$0 (+0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $309 +$2 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $154 −$3 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $156 −$3 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $219 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $202 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $172 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $325 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $171 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $281 −$6 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $142 +$15 +11%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $142 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $44 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $90 −$8 -9%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $151 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $170 −$4 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $63 +$7 +10%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $138 +$12 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $152 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $138 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $152 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $137 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $137 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $151 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $137 −$1 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $138 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $137 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $138 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $148 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $15 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $169 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $169 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $169 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $65 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $30 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $59 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $84 +$15 +18%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $332 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $1,041 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $1,207 +$2 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $946 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $1,090 +$16 +2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $2,160 +$6 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $18 +$2 +9%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 11 $7 +$2 +33%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $135 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $8 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $147 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $139 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $14 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $9 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $24 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 39h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $23 39h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $20 47h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $134 47h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 53¢ $19 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 53¢ $138 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $63 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $63 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $66 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $4 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $62 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 90¢ $172 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 90¢ $172 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $12 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $49 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $123 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $171 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $156 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $156 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.67 · official $166.67 (match) · 313 history records