Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:18:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9652…c5c1 politics 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 282d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%16W / 31L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$3
politics 22% $0
sports 13% $0
other 11% $0
finance 3% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 12 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 12 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.0%
all 47 +0.5% -9.1% 34% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -9.3%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.27 per $1 lost it wins $3.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

282d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses16 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage282d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $151 +$2 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $42 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $10 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $78 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $28 +$1 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 05 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? Oct 02 $14 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 29 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 27 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 25 $22 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 21 $20 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Sep 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $1 $0 +4%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 19 $1 $0 -1%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 19 $19 $0 +1%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $1 $0 +16%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $19 35m
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $20 35m
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $39 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $33 16h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $33 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $17 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $22 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $28 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $9 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $37 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $37 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 71¢ $41 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 72¢ $42 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $4 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $5 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $10 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $8 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $30 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $38 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $16 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $22 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $5 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $42 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $18 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $19 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 157 history records