Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:36:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9654…5cfb crypto 326 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
Total PnL −$140 (-10%) realized −$141 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate71%232W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$96
sports 14% −$36
other 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +1.2% -8.4% 76% 61% -5.8%
≤30d 66 -11.9% -20.3% 61% 48% -46.2%
≤90d 76 -8.6% -17.3% 62% 49% -37.5%
all 326 -5.1% -14.2% 71% 33% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 33% -18.4%
10% -22.4% 22% -26.2%
15% -29.9% 16% -33.3%
20% -36.8% 9% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses232 / 94
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)326 / 326
History coverage98d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 326 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Over 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Yes 63¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 Yes 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Yes 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 25.5 Yes 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 Yes 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals Yes 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
James Harden: Points O/U 18.5 Yes 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Yes 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 84¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Yes 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$1 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +108%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -42%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +24%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +39%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 −$1 -19%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +26%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +17%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $44 −$44 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 27 $1 +$2 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 27 $5 $0 +6%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand May 25 $2 +$1 +26%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 May 25 $2 +$1 +67%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $2 +$1 +70%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand P May 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5 May 21 $3 +$3 +93%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $5 +$2 +44%
Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5 May 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 May 20 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 19 $2 $0 +2%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $1 $0 +34%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.5 May 18 $5 +$4 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 32m
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2 32m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $3 40m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 43¢ $0 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 44¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 45¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $1 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $1 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $1 2h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $3 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 754 history records