Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:40:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

96
0x9655…31ce
weather · 349 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$12 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses95 / 236
Open positions18
Markets (closed)331 / 349
History coverage18d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day30.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 18 History 331 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Yes 30¢ 31¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Yes 43¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? Yes 28¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 13? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 10? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 11? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? No 18¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +221%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$4 +395%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 11? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 11? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +234%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +242%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +282%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +147%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$6 +533%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +187%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 97¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? SELL Yes 96¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 96¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 15¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 15¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 -8.2% -16.9% 31% 30% -9.4%
≤30d 331 -8.7% -17.4% 29% 27% -10.9%
≤90d 331 -8.7% -17.4% 29% 27% -10.9%
all 331 -8.7% -17.4% 29% 27% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 27% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 27% -19.5%
15% -32.5% 25% -27.2%
20% -39.1% 23% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.96 · official $12.95 (match) · 758 history records