Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:18:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
96 0x9656…5b8b other 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$62 (-0%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate7%7W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$31
politics 20% −$5
economics 6% −$2
world 4% −$1
sports 3% −$26
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 106 -5.2% -14.2% 7% 5% -9.8%
all 106 -5.2% -14.2% 7% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 5% -9.8%
10% -22.4% 5% -18.4%
15% -29.9% 5% -26.3%
20% -36.8% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×6.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses7 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)106 / 108
History coverage88d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $137 $137 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 52¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $89 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $49 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $29 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 02 $95 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $970 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $45 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $34 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 24 $50 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $263 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $510 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $233 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $931 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $236 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 14 $219 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $433 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $230 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $217 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $946 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $474 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $223 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $235 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $231 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $688 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $244 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $219 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $457 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $224 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $236 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $220 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $470 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $228 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $228 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $227 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $221 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $271 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $222 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $246 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $248 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $407 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $45 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $46 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $11 7h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $45 24h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $45 27h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 45h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $137 2d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 7d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 7d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 8d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 8d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $44 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $44 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 14d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 16d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 18d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 19d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 19d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 19d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 19d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $56 22d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $50 25d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $50 25d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $36 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.36 · official $148.36 (match) · 301 history records