Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:44:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
96 0x965d…7f4e crypto 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 763d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$39 (-1%) realized −$53 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$383now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% −$64
crypto 5% −$21
sports 4% −$52
other 4% −$16
politics 4% +$130
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 +3.2% -6.7% 67% 67% +29.0%
all 33 +34.0% +21.2% 45% 36% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.2% 36% -11.3%
10% +9.6% 24% -19.8%
15% -1.0% 15% -27.5%
20% -10.7% 15% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +98% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$21 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

763d coverage
Net worth$383
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Open positions4
Markets (closed)33 / 37
History coverage763d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 92¢ 100¢ $276 $300 +$24 (+9%)
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 96¢ $37 $41 +$4 (+12%)
World Cup: Scoreless Team? Yes 86¢ 57¢ $43 $29 −$14 (-33%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin above $114K on August 20? Apr 26 $9 +$7 +84%
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local Apr 26 $12 +$3 +25%
Will Italy win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jan 07 $249 +$51 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET Aug 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 23, 11PM ET Aug 24 $1 +$2 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 11AM ET Aug 23 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass? Aug 23 $4,380 −$169 -4%
Bitcoin above $114K on August 22 at 4PM ET? Aug 22 $33 −$24 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 21? Aug 21 $3 −$3 -100%
EWC Cs2: 3DMAX vs. The MongolZ Aug 21 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - August 21, 6AM ET Aug 21 $24 +$17 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET Aug 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 20? Aug 20 $7 +$74 +1057%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $114K on August 19 at 4PM ET? Aug 20 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $113.5K on August 19 at 4PM ET? Aug 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above $114K on August 19 at 4PM ET? Aug 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Trump approval >45% on August 1? Jul 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Astronomer Divorce Parlay Jul 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Boxing – Pacquiao vs. Barrios Jul 20 $222 −$34 -16%
Will the next government of Suriname be NDP/NPS/ABOP? Jul 19 $122 +$17 +14%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Apr 07 $78 −$78 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? Apr 07 $204 +$23 +11%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 16 $164 +$122 +74%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 07 $37 +$13 +34%
Fed rate cut by June 12? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Indian Election: Modi reelected? Jun 10 $27 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan in May? Jun 01 $24 $0 +1%
Chase bank explosion an inside job? May 31 $0 $0 -93%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves be 2023-24 NBA Champions? May 31 $2 $0 +14%
Will Indiana Pacers be 2023-24 NBA Champions? May 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Eastern Conference Finals: Celtics vs. Pacers May 25 $0 $0 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
World Cup: Scoreless Team? SELL Yes 57¢ $28 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 19h
World Cup: Scoreless Team? BUY Yes 86¢ $52 27h
World Cup: Scoreless Team? BUY Yes 86¢ $34 27h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 4d
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local SELL Yes 15¢ $13 61d
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local SELL Yes 15¢ $1 61d
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local SELL Yes 15¢ $1 61d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $276 104d
Will Italy win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 106d
Will Italy win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 106d
Will Italy win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 106d
Will Italy win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 106d
Will Italy win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 106d
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $17 108d
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $13 108d
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $7 108d
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local BUY Yes 12¢ $12 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 6AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 306d
Ethereum Up or Down - August 23, 11PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $3 306d
Ethereum Up or Down - August 23, 11PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 306d
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 11AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 307d
Will the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass? BUY No 100¢ $3,001 307d
Will the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass? BUY No 100¢ $999 307d
Will the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass? BUY No 100¢ $171 307d
Will the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 307d
Will the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 307d
Will the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 307d
Will the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 307d
Will the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 307d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $383.06 · official $383.06 (match) · 139 history records