Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:27:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9661…2976 weather 33 markets active 13h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate90%28W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -1.0% -10.4% 87% 33% -10.9%
≤30d 31 -0.8% -10.2% 90% 29% -10.4%
≤90d 31 -0.8% -10.2% 90% 29% -10.4%
all 31 -0.8% -10.2% 90% 29% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 29% -10.4%
10% -18.8% 16% -18.9%
15% -26.6% 3% -26.8%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses28 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage28d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? No 98¢ 98¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? No 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 9? Jun 10 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 9? Jun 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on May 28? May 28 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on May 22? May 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 22? May 22 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on May 21? May 22 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 21? May 22 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on May 21? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 21? May 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 21? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 20? May 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 20? May 21 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $5 37h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $5 37h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $4 37h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 37h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 74¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 95¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 73¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 72¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 86¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 63¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 86¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 11? BUY No 96¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? BUY No 92¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 9? BUY No 85¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.97 · official $4.96 (match) · 67 history records