Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:21:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9663…5b70 sports 685 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,324 (+19%) realized +$6,506 · open −$182
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%276W / 394L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day93.0pace
Fees−$417est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$553now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 31d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$529
other 13% −$370
politics 6% +$165
crypto 0% −$81
weather 0% +$12
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 166 +17.8% +6.6% 43% 40% -17.6%
≤30d 666 +1.3% -8.4% 41% 39% -8.4%
≤90d 670 +1.8% -7.9% 41% 39% -8.3%
all 670 +1.8% -7.9% 41% 39% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 39% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 37% -17.1%
15% -24.8% 34% -25.1%
20% -32.2% 31% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$37 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$553
Realized+$6,506
Unrealized−$182
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses276 / 394
Est. fees paid−$417
Open positions16
Markets (closed)670 / 685
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$49
Trades / day93.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 670 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Madison Keys 45¢ 48¢ $291 $314 +$23 (+8%)
ITF Ystad: Emma Kamper Malmkjaer vs Rebecca Munk Mortensen Emma Kamper Malmkjaer 58¢ 22¢ $154 $60 −$94 (-61%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Kia Tigers 59¢ 74¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+25%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs INOX Division 61¢ 65¢ $26 $28 +$2 (+7%)
Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-05-23? Yes 78¢ 61¢ $28 $22 −$6 (-22%)
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Talia Gibson 30¢ 34¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+13%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 44¢ 38¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-12%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Scotland 24¢ 25¢ $15 $15 +$1 (+5%)
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos NC Dinos 51¢ 16¢ $41 $13 −$28 (-68%)
Will Club Aurora win on 2026-05-08? Yes 18¢ 25¢ $7 $9 +$3 (+41%)
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Fenerbahce 71¢ 71¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Miriam Bulgaru 37¢ 36¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-1%)
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Afghanistan 12¢ 1¢ $77 $5 −$72 (-93%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers LG Twins 43¢ 26¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-38%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals San Diego Padres 46¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage KOLESIE 48¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Nigeria 43¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Haskovo: Valeria Garnevska vs Lia Karatancheva Jun 17 $1 $0 -97%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $16 +$13 +85%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $140 +$25 +18%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $55 +$168 +307%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $65 +$51 +79%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $64 +$93 +146%
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri Jun 16 $26 −$4 -14%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $7 +$8 +129%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $10 +$20 +188%
ITF Blois: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Margaux Rouvroy Jun 16 $4 +$2 +70%
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Jun 16 $10 +$31 +291%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $34 +$49 +146%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $4 +$4 +114%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $135 +$13 +10%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $127 −$116 -91%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $24 +$18 +73%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $8 +$16 +216%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $204 +$116 +57%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $4 +$2 +67%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $9 −$9 -99%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $4 +$3 +65%
ITF Mohammedia: Polina Kuharenko vs Vaidehi Chaudhari Jun 16 $83 −$82 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $332 −$327 -99%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $80 −$79 -99%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $183 −$181 -99%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $169 −$166 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $27 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 15 $15 −$14 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$111 +1116%
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $11 +$30 +285%
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $14 +$16 +119%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $49 +$44 +90%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $14 +$27 +188%
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke Jun 15 $10 +$11 +118%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $84 +$72 +86%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $6 +$3 +48%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Minaur/Norrie vs Bhambri/Venus Jun 15 $156 −$153 -98%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 15 $55 +$5 +10%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $2 +$3 +157%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $102 +$148 +146%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $46 +$48 +106%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Lehecka/Mensik vs Johnson/Zielinski Jun 15 $44 −$44 -99%
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi Jun 15 $18 −$18 -97%
Figueira Da Foz: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoria Hruncakova Jun 15 $24 −$24 -99%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $6 +$93 +1549%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 46¢ $3 2m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 61¢ $26 1h
ITF Ystad: Emma Kamper Malmkjaer vs Rebecca Munk Mortensen BUY Emma Kamper Malmkjaer 60¢ $26 1h
ITF Ystad: Emma Kamper Malmkjaer vs Rebecca Munk Mortensen BUY Emma Kamper Malmkjaer 60¢ $16 1h
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Miriam Bulgaru 37¢ $6 2h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 51¢ $20 2h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 51¢ $22 2h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 43¢ $8 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 48¢ $2 2h
ITF Ystad: Emma Kamper Malmkjaer vs Rebecca Munk Mortensen BUY Emma Kamper Malmkjaer 57¢ $24 2h
ITF Ystad: Emma Kamper Malmkjaer vs Rebecca Munk Mortensen BUY Emma Kamper Malmkjaer 57¢ $24 2h
ITF Ystad: Emma Kamper Malmkjaer vs Rebecca Munk Mortensen BUY Emma Kamper Malmkjaer 57¢ $24 2h
ITF Ystad: Emma Kamper Malmkjaer vs Rebecca Munk Mortensen BUY Emma Kamper Malmkjaer 57¢ $24 2h
ITF Ystad: Emma Kamper Malmkjaer vs Rebecca Munk Mortensen BUY Emma Kamper Malmkjaer 57¢ $17 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 23¢ $1 3h
ITF Haskovo: Valeria Garnevska vs Lia Karatancheva BUY Valeria Garnevska 9¢ $1 4h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 59¢ $25 5h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 12¢ $5 5h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 12¢ $5 5h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 12¢ $5 5h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 12¢ $5 5h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 12¢ $5 5h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 12¢ $5 5h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 12¢ $5 5h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 12¢ $5 5h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 12¢ $5 5h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 12¢ $5 5h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 12¢ $5 5h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 12¢ $5 5h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 12¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $552.75 · official $559.39 · 3500 history records