Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:05:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9664…17d3 politics 29 markets active 2d ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%3W / 26L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$934per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 86% −$88
economics 7% −$1
other 7% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 27% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 29 -0.6% -10.1% 10% 0% -9.8%
all 29 -0.6% -10.1% 10% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$931) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses3 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage72d
Avg bet$934
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $43 $0 +0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $897 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,888 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $899 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $899 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,888 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $900 −$2 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,815 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $910 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $912 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $913 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $913 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 12 $898 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $919 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $917 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,846 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $922 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $789 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $931 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $931 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $389 −$56 -14%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $989 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 18 $990 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $29 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $43 4d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $896 9d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $897 10d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $896 11d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $898 13d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $898 14d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $899 15d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $898 16d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $899 18d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $899 19d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $900 20d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $898 24d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $900 25d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $899 26d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $900 27d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $907 28d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $908 29d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $907 31d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $908 32d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $904 33d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $905 34d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $909 35d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $910 36d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $909 37d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $910 38d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $910 39d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $912 40d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $912 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 107 history records