Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:02:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9666…c51e other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5 (-2%) realized −$4 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%22W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$4
14 days+$5
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$1
other 44% −$15
crypto 4% −$2
culture 1% −$1
politics 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +7.3% -2.9% 50% 50% -1.8%
≤30d 33 -9.7% -18.3% 45% 45% -14.9%
≤90d 54 -15.7% -23.8% 41% 41% -14.1%
all 54 -15.7% -23.8% 41% 41% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 41% -14.1%
10% -31.1% 39% -22.3%
15% -37.7% 35% -29.9%
20% -43.8% 31% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses22 / 32
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage161d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$7 -73%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$7 +134%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$7 +134%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +70%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $5 +$5 +93%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $3 +$2 +60%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $3 +$1 +44%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $6 $0 -4%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $12 −$9 -76%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $10 −$9 -91%
Nanterre vs. Le Mans May 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 −$4 -79%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 2.5 May 23 $3 +$3 +86%
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 2.5 May 23 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $3 $0 +11%
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask? May 22 $0 $0 -31%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 May 20 $5 +$2 +40%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 20 $5 +$1 +29%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $5 +$3 +57%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $7 −$4 -55%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k? May 16 $1 $0 -30%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score May 15 $6 +$4 +72%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 May 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? May 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 04 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $1 +$2 +216%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $5 +$7 +146%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 3 - 0 Arsenal FC? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $1 +$2 +152%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 FC Bayern München? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $2 +$2 +97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 1 - 2 Manchester City FC? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 0 - 2 Manchester City FC? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 16¢ $3 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 11h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $5 34h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $5 34h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $5 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5 3d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5 4d
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $3 10d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 11d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 11d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 57¢ $6 15d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 15d
Thunder vs. Spurs SELL Thunder $3 17d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 29¢ $12 17d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 18d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? SELL Yes $1 18d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 18d
Nanterre vs. Le Mans BUY Le Mans 42¢ $5 20d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No $0 21d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? SELL No 11¢ $1 21d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 50¢ $5 21d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 21d
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 22d
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $5 22d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 23d
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask? SELL Yes $0 23d
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask? BUY Yes $0 23d
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $5 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.48 · official $0.48 (match) · 93 history records