Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:56:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

96
0x9669…7884
politics · 123 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$2,310 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,256 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$435
Realized+$2,256
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses32 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage137d
Avg bet$1,493
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 1 History 122 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$35
14 days+$160
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $436 $435 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,554 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $4,663 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,635 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $1,648 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,551 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,499 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $4,307 −$5 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,288 −$6 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,631 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $4,877 −$5 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $4,319 −$5 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,474 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,317 −$4 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $51 +$157 +307%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 Jun 04 $85 +$68 +79%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,417 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $2,801 −$4 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $11,706 −$13 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 01 $798 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 01 $535 +$1 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $643 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $5,499 −$6 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $2,746 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,356 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,619 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $1,055 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $4,065 −$4 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 25 $56 −$56 -100%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $1,269 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $6,725 −$7 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $4,310 −$5 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,641 −$3 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $1,651 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,562 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,634 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,545 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,641 −$3 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $3,305 −$4 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,690 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,600 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $1,451 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $3,367 −$4 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,678 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $1,659 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $3,126 −$3 -0%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) May 03 $1,527 +$1,542 +101%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $1,415 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $1,330 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 46% −$103
other 36% −$236
sports 11% +$2,704
world 4% −$103
economics 2% −$11
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,552 1h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,554 5h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,519 18h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,521 29h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $436 30h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,632 41h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,635 47h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,647 3d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,648 4d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,549 4d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,551 4d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,497 4d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,499 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,493 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,495 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,794 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,796 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,629 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,631 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,683 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,684 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,570 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,572 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,471 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,474 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,555 8d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,557 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY No 24¢ $51 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 55¢ $85 10d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,415 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 +5.6% -4.5% 12% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 79 -10.7% -19.2% 10% 5% -8.3%
all 122 -1.1% -10.5% 26% 11% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 11% -8.4%
10% -19.1% 11% -17.2%
15% -26.9% 10% -25.2%
20% -34.0% 7% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $435.41 · official $435.41 (match) · 411 history records