Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:43:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9672…4289 crypto 248 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$186 (+4%) realized +$215 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%61W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$142
14 days+$203
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$624
other 10% +$74
world 9% +$276
politics 3% −$124
finance 2% +$177
sports 1% −$49
tech 1% −$38
economics 1% +$140
culture 1% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +8.6% -1.8% 45% 45% +48.5%
≤30d 63 -30.6% -37.3% 25% 24% -6.2%
≤90d 148 -9.8% -18.4% 26% 25% -17.5%
all 243 -5.9% -14.9% 25% 25% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 25% -13.2%
10% -23.0% 23% -21.5%
15% -30.5% 22% -29.1%
20% -37.3% 21% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$14 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$215
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses61 / 182
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)243 / 248
History coverage162d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-89%)
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $38 +$48 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +75%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 16 $44 −$43 -99%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $25 +$62 +250%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $50 +$93 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $24 +$13 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$15 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $15 +$50 +332%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $10 +$48 +479%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $28 −$27 -97%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12PM ET Jun 02 $23 −$22 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 02 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at >$470 on the final day of trading of th Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 02 $16 −$15 -94%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $87 −$49 -56%
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? Jun 01 $15 −$5 -36%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 30 $16 −$15 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 30? May 30 $16 −$16 -100%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? May 30 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 30 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $27 +$40 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4PM ET May 29 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -94%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs AM Gaming (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Se May 29 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner May 29 $5 −$4 -68%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? May 29 $60 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 29 $32 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 29 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 29 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 29 $13 −$4 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison? May 29 $8 −$7 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 2h
Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists AND Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists AND Cristiano BUY 10¢ $17 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $86 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $9 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 5¢ $5 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 14¢ $15 44h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 45h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 91¢ $87 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $37 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.31 · official $1.31 (match) · 866 history records