Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9674…eaef crypto 790 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (131 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$734 (+3%) realized +$734 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate45%495W / 598L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day130.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,659
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (131 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 329 -85.0% -86.5% 8% 4% -90.4%
≤30d 1093 -31.2% -37.7% 45% 34% -42.9%
≤90d 1093 -31.2% -37.7% 45% 34% -42.9%
all 1093 -31.2% -37.7% 45% 34% -42.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover130.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.7% 34% -42.9%
10% ← realistic here -43.7% 22% -48.4%
15% -49.1% 16% -53.4%
20% -54.1% 11% -57.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$35 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$734
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses495 / 598
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1093 / 790
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$32
Trades / day130.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1093 Trades
no open positions (462 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $499 −$499 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $22 −$97 -438%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$89 -29139%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $171 −$171 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $303 −$303 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $242 −$242 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $266 −$266 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $140 −$162 -116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$10 -126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $125 −$135 -108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$19 -188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$3 -300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records