Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:27:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
96 0x9674…1302 sports 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,082 (-14%) realized −$2,060 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate58%42W / 31L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$328now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$87
14 days−$87
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$2,448
other 13% +$446
world 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -27.2% -34.1% 50% 33% -14.5%
≤30d 6 -27.2% -34.1% 50% 33% -14.5%
≤90d 10 -17.9% -25.8% 60% 50% -31.1%
all 73 -7.0% -15.9% 58% 53% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 53% -21.8%
10% -23.9% 40% -29.2%
15% -31.3% 26% -36.1%
20% -38.0% 21% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$143 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$328
Realized−$2,060
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses42 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions2
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage196d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Aurora Gaming 68¢ 58¢ $200 $172 −$28 (-14%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $150 $156 +$6 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1,045 +$62 +6%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $251 +$43 +17%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 +$58 +114%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Wildcard (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 06 $2,500 −$2,268 -91%
Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by March 31? Mar 31 $1,044 +$435 +42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Mar 29 $924 +$163 +18%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 22 $804 +$120 +15%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Mar 21 $682 +$122 +18%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 21 $387 −$387 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B Mar 19 $333 +$54 +16%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs Mar 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 3 Winner Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Mar 19 $90 −$72 -81%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Mar 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Mar 19 $83 −$83 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) Mar 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Sta Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Mar 19 $53 −$53 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs 3DMAX (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs TheMongolz (BO3) Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B Mar 19 $343 −$10 -3%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 19 $278 +$65 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Mar 18 $214 +$64 +30%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs NRG (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Mar 18 $173 +$40 +23%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoff Mar 15 $80 +$94 +117%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playo Mar 15 $43 +$37 +85%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Mar 14 $37 +$6 +17%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs Mar 13 $269 −$232 -86%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner Mar 09 $200 −$178 -89%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Heroic (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 06 $31 +$20 +67%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 06 $100 +$54 +54%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5) Mar 06 $236 −$209 -89%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner Mar 05 $261 +$204 +78%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION (BO5) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoff Feb 22 $294 +$69 +24%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 20 $100 +$56 +56%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Feb 20 $100 +$72 +72%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 17 $108 −$19 -17%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 16 $225 −$60 -27%
Will Jynxzi & Joe Bart win Jynxzi's Rocket League tournament? Feb 16 $305 +$66 +22%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group S Feb 15 $93 +$50 +54%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Feb 08 $168 +$56 +33%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Feb 06 $30 +$53 +178%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Feb 03 $98 +$28 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $153 1h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 68¢ $202 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $1,028 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $788 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 17¢ $43 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 60¢ $157 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 28¢ $37 21h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $28 21h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 46¢ $102 29h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $101 29h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 85¢ $251 47h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $51 2d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $153 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 51¢ $101 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 46¢ $51 6d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Wildcard (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage SELL FOKUS 7¢ $232 75d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Wildcard (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage BUY FOKUS 75¢ $2,500 75d
Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $1,480 80d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam BUY Vitality 85¢ $924 83d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro BUY Team Falcons 87¢ $804 90d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $804 90d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 85¢ $682 90d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A BUY FaZe 65¢ $387 92d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B BUY Spirit 86¢ $333 93d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B SELL PARIVISION 64¢ $333 93d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B BUY PARIVISION 66¢ $343 93d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A BUY FURIA 81¢ $278 93d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group BUY Natus Vincere 77¢ $214 94d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs NRG (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $214 94d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs NRG (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group BUY Team Falcons 81¢ $173 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $327.68 · official $332.67 · 193 history records