Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:34:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
96 0x9678…594b sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$540 (-22%) realized −$477 · open −$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate59%16W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$67
14 days+$67
30 days+$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$237
sports 30% −$180
crypto 19% −$126
world 5% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +24.9% +13.0% 100% 67% +10.1%
≤30d 3 +24.9% +13.0% 100% 67% +10.1%
≤90d 3 +24.9% +13.0% 100% 67% +10.1%
all 27 -10.9% -19.3% 59% 33% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 33% -29.3%
10% -27.1% 33% -36.1%
15% -34.1% 26% -42.2%
20% -40.6% 19% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% too few recent
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$85 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized−$477
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses16 / 11
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)27 / 30
History coverage195d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage ALKA 53¢ 54¢ $115 $116 +$1 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage Game Hunters 60¢ 57¢ $52 $50 −$2 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 5¢ $85 $23 −$62 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $81 +$36 +44%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 27 $129 +$4 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $101 +$28 +28%
Will AZ win on 2025-12-18? Jan 29 $59 −$59 -100%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-01-29? Jan 28 $364 −$364 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $239 +$125 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Dec 18 $44 −$22 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Dec 18 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Dec 18 $60 −$27 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Dec 18 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Dec 18 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Dec 18 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Dec 18 $60 +$14 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Dec 18 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Dec 18 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Dec 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? Dec 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15? Dec 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Canucks vs. Rangers Dec 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score Dec 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 Dec 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5 Dec 17 $95 −$10 -11%
Pistons vs. Celtics Dec 16 $40 +$45 +113%
Will SC Braga win on 2025-12-15? Dec 16 $60 +$30 +49%
Spread: Jaguars (-13.5) Dec 15 $50 +$46 +92%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-14? Dec 15 $100 +$61 +61%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $50 +$61 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY ALKA 53¢ $117 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $117 1h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Game Hunters 60¢ $52 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $81 4h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $132 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $88 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $129 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $129 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $101 4d
Will SC Braga win on 2026-01-29? BUY Yes 53¢ $364 149d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-28? SELL Yes 94¢ $364 149d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 62¢ $239 150d
Will AZ win on 2025-12-18? BUY Yes 67¢ $59 191d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $15 191d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $15 191d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $5 191d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $18 191d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $15 191d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $15 191d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $15 191d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $15 191d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $22 191d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $22 191d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $20 191d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $21 191d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $15 191d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 191d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $22 191d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 191d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $20 191d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.40 · official $188.40 (match) · 88 history records