Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:22:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
96 0x9678…cfe5 sports 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$406 (-10%) realized −$694 · open +$288
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$732now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$386
7 days−$424
14 days−$424
30 days−$424
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$209
crypto 4% +$67
other 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -17.6% -25.4% 57% 50% -20.3%
≤30d 14 -17.6% -25.4% 57% 50% -20.3%
≤90d 14 -17.6% -25.4% 57% 50% -20.3%
all 14 -17.6% -25.4% 57% 50% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 50% -20.3%
10% -32.6% 43% -27.9%
15% -39.1% 29% -34.9%
20% -45.1% 7% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$179 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$732
Realized−$694
Unrealized+$288
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage7d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Raphael Collignon 38¢ 88¢ $249 $573 +$324 (+130%)
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 87¢ 71¢ $195 $158 −$37 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 18 $56 −$56 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 18 $1,338 −$882 -66%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $410 +$39 +10%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $280 +$130 +46%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $221 +$60 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $163 +$64 +39%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$5 +21%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $932 +$351 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +28%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $43 −$42 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 87¢ $196 15m
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 38¢ $254 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $449 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 91¢ $410 2h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 68¢ $280 3h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $281 3h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 78¢ $221 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $163 17h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 20h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Federico Coria 54¢ $753 45h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria SELL Nicolas Kicker 47¢ $456 45h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 54¢ $95 46h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 59¢ $490 46h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 100¢ $883 46h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 45¢ $401 47h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Cameron Norrie 45¢ $401 47h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 58¢ $532 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 1¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 26¢ $43 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 28¢ $34 6d
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini BUY Andrea Collarini 46¢ $56 6d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech BUY Arthur Rinderknech 49¢ $39 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 57¢ $24 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $731.54 · official $742.53 · 35 history records