Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:30:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9679…09a8 crypto 971 markets active 1h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$51 (+1%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate78%754W / 217L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$53
14 days+$22
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$17
other 0% −$3
sports 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 352 +0.7% -8.9% 89% 3% -8.7%
≤30d 762 -1.4% -10.8% 79% 12% -9.6%
≤90d 795 -3.3% -12.5% 77% 12% -9.8%
all 971 -1.8% -11.1% 78% 16% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 16% -9.7%
10% -19.6% 3% -18.4%
15% -27.4% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses754 / 217
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)971 / 971
History coverage184d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 971 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $30 −$13 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 25 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $20 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $17 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2007 history records