Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:11:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x967e…2fb6 crypto 1584 markets active 5h ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d only
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,012 (-12%) realized −$3,012 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%734W / 850L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day72.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$578
14 days−$3,773
30 days−$1,341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$965
weather 10% −$376
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 165 -6.6% -15.5% 52% 52% +8.4%
≤30d 1584 -7.6% -16.4% 46% 45% -14.4%
≤90d 1584 -7.6% -16.4% 46% 45% -14.4%
all 1584 -7.6% -16.4% 46% 45% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 45% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 44% -22.6%
15% -31.7% 43% -30.1%
20% -38.4% 41% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$14 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,012
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses734 / 850
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1584 / 1584
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day72.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1584 Trades
no open positions (149 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$94 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $39 +$32 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$27 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $54 −$53 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$44 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $47 −$46 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$45 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $52 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $39 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $33 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $54 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records