Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:59:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
96 0x967f…a5d9 other 170 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$331 (+2%) realized +$331 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate86%147W / 23L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$171
7 days−$171
14 days−$132
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$276
sports 42% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +14.2% +3.3% 77% 69% -12.0%
≤30d 21 +12.0% +1.4% 86% 52% -5.4%
≤90d 170 +2.8% -7.0% 86% 23% -7.5%
all 170 +2.8% -7.0% 86% 23% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 23% -7.5%
10% -15.9% 6% -16.3%
15% -24.0% 5% -24.4%
20% -31.5% 1% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$51 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$331
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses147 / 23
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions0
Markets (closed)170 / 170
History coverage81d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 170 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 23 $56 +$19 +34%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 23 $214 −$230 -107%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $54 +$68 +126%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 23 $66 +$28 +42%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $71 +$22 +31%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 23 $62 +$24 +38%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $54 −$53 -98%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 22 $185 −$174 -94%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $57 +$37 +66%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $60 +$28 +46%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $65 +$27 +42%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $63 +$29 +46%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $59 +$3 +6%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $188 +$20 +11%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $185 +$18 +10%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $210 +$23 +11%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $206 +$15 +7%
Will Millonarios FC win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $302 +$26 +8%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $197 +$17 +9%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $195 +$12 +6%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $288 +$18 +6%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $187 +$23 +12%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $183 +$24 +13%
Will Cusco FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $180 +$9 +5%
Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $266 +$14 +5%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $176 +$9 +5%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $172 +$19 +11%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $168 +$22 +13%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $165 +$16 +10%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 15 $161 +$16 +10%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 15 $158 +$15 +10%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 14 $155 +$19 +12%
Will Angers SCO win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $103 +$4 +4%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $130 +$19 +15%
Will FC Metz win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $162 +$8 +5%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $83 −$67 -81%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $160 +$6 +4%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $158 +$10 +6%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $156 +$10 +6%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $155 +$8 +5%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $151 +$18 +12%
Will CA Talleres win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $150 +$6 +4%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $183 +$11 +6%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $180 +$13 +7%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 09 $176 +$19 +11%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $175 +$5 +3%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $173 +$7 +4%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 07 $171 +$15 +8%
Will CSyD Macará win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $169 +$7 +4%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $164 +$25 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 99¢ $76 14m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $122 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins SELL Texas Rangers 99¢ $94 1h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Detroit Tigers 99¢ $93 2h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 73¢ $56 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Kansas City Royals 99¢ $86 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $54 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $54 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 71¢ $62 3h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 69¢ $66 3h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 75¢ $71 3h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Baltimore Orioles 99¢ $94 28h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 99¢ $50 29h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 99¢ $5 29h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers SELL Texas Rangers 99¢ $92 29h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 99¢ $20 29h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 99¢ $13 29h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 59¢ $57 30h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 67¢ $60 31h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 69¢ $65 31h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Milwaukee Brewers 99¢ $92 31h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL Cincinnati Reds 71¢ $62 31h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 66¢ $59 32h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 67¢ $63 32h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 99¢ $209 8d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 89¢ $188 8d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Hurricanes 99¢ $202 11d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 90¢ $185 11d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 45¢ $22 18d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 45¢ $22 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2602 history records