Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:48:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9684…a3d0 other 259 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$88 (-0%) realized −$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 251L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$20
14 days−$29
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$42
sports 22% −$18
politics 9% −$16
culture 7% −$10
crypto 6% −$6
economics 6% −$5
world 3% −$3
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 184 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 258 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 251
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)258 / 259
History coverage137d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $355 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $510 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $192 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $644 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $188 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $337 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $495 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $203 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $387 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $132 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $349 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $228 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $497 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 14 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $249 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $447 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $291 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $261 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 12 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $312 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $74 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $918 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $132 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $337 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $422 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $447 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $229 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 07 $675 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $290 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $123 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $455 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 06 $123 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $263 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $284 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $317 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $314 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $49 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 4h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $50 5h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $50 6h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $50 9h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $50 10h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 12h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 13h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $50 15h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 17h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 19h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 21h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 21h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 22h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 27h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 29h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $50 33h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $50 35h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 36h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 37h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 40h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 41h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 43h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 44h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $51 46h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $51 47h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.43 · official $49.43 (match) · 1442 history records