Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9684…56b5 other 53 markets active 14h ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate23%12W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 75% −$16
other 14% −$6
sports 4% +$8
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -6.4% -15.3% 12% 0% -12.1%
≤90d 40 -2.4% -11.7% 22% 10% -9.3%
all 52 -2.0% -11.4% 23% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 8% -9.8%
10% -19.8% 8% -18.5%
15% -27.6% 8% -26.3%
20% -34.7% 8% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses12 / 40
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage614d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $20 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 11 $58 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 11 $9 +$8 +86%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $48 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $50 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $52 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $102 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 08 $8 +$8 +89%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $12 +$8 +70%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $8 +$5 +59%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 06 $25 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 27 $10 $0 +3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 27 $19 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of February? Mar 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $24 −$1 -3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $12 $0 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $30 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $222 −$3 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $706 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 13h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 15h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 34h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 38h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $23 4d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 5d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $7 5d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $7 6d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 7d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 7d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 8d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 8d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 51¢ $6 9d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 11d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $13 15d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $13 15d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 17d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 17d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 18d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 18d
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 22d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $11 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.93 · official $22.93 (match) · 319 history records