trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | +27.9% | +15.7% | 88% | 62% | +10.2% |
| ≤30d | 10 | +4.3% | -5.6% | 70% | 50% | -16.5% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +4.3% | -5.6% | 70% | 50% | -16.5% |
| all | 13 | +10.9% | +0.3% | 69% | 54% | +8.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +0.3% | 54% | +8.2% |
| 10% | -9.3% | 46% | -2.2% |
| 15% | -18.0% | 31% | -11.6% |
| 20% | -26.1% | 15% | -20.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 30¢ | 34¢ | $300 | $346 | +$46 (+15%) |
| Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | Yes | 77¢ | 76¢ | $250 | $247 | −$3 (-1%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 18¢ | 18¢ | $100 | $100 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 14¢ | 14¢ | $100 | $100 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | Yes | 71¢ | 70¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $200 | $60 | −$140 (-70%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 20 | $500 | +$176 | +35% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $1,500 | +$130 | +9% |
| Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | Jun 15 | $70 | +$15 | +22% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 15 | $250 | +$179 | +72% |
| Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | Jun 14 | $120 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | Jun 14 | $120 | +$55 | +46% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 13 | $100 | −$5 | -5% |
| Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | Jun 13 | $120 | +$53 | +44% |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | Jun 12 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | Jun 12 | $1,000 | −$802 | -80% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Mar 01 | $9,155 | +$3,217 | +35% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Feb 28 | $735 | +$840 | +114% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Jan 15 | $1,505 | −$770 | -51% |