Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:50:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9688…d044 crypto 588 markets active 1h ago coverage 427d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$975 (+5%) realized +$975 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%190W / 398L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,651
7 days−$108
14 days+$12
30 days+$226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$892
other 4% −$186
world 3% −$98
finance 1% −$19
sports 1% −$164
economics 0% −$24
weather 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -7.6% -16.4% 27% 27% -13.3%
≤30d 213 -1.2% -10.6% 32% 32% -5.7%
≤90d 335 -9.1% -17.7% 30% 30% -12.0%
all 588 -3.6% -12.8% 32% 32% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 32% -7.7%
10% -21.2% 32% -16.5%
15% -28.8% 31% -24.6%
20% -35.8% 31% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$31 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

427d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$975
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses190 / 398
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)588 / 588
History coverage427d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 588 Trades
no open positions (72 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $84 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 22 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 22 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $57 +$91 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$79 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $43 +$401 +943%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$83 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -95%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 19 $46 +$32 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $53 +$126 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$30 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $97 +$141 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$24 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $16 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $37 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $42 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $57 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $29 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $43 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $42 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $48 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $21 3d
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $46 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $53 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $37 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $97 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $36 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1364 history records