Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:47:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9689…df62 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$863 (+8%) realized +$915 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$811per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$176est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$4,948now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$2,315
crypto 2% +$10
other 1% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -7.0% -15.8% 46% 38% -43.3%
≤30d 13 -7.0% -15.8% 46% 38% -43.3%
≤90d 13 -7.0% -15.8% 46% 38% -43.3%
all 13 -7.0% -15.8% 46% 38% -43.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 38% -43.3%
10% -23.9% 31% -48.7%
15% -31.2% 23% -53.7%
20% -38.0% 15% -58.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$235 vs −$531 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$4,948
Realized+$915
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$176
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$811
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $5,000 $4,948 −$52 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$22 +42%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,046 −$2,022 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,694 −$1,136 -67%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $141 +$38 +27%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $951 +$48 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $105 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $78 −$25 -32%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $102 −$77 -76%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $590 +$1,233 +209%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $390 −$379 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 +$55 +226%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $80 −$56 -70%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $73 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 37m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5,078 38m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $2 57m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $557 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 13¢ $558 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $449 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $505 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $511 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $534 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $343 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $609 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $180 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $226 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $3 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $999 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $141 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $951 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $49 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $69 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $45 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 6¢ $3 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 9¢ $22 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,947.92 · official $4,947.92 (match) · 48 history records