Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:26:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x968c…b92f crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$24 (+3%) realized +$78 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$34
sports 1% −$1
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.6% -11.8% 62% 50% -3.8%
≤30d 21 -24.1% -31.3% 48% 33% -6.5%
≤90d 26 -19.6% -27.2% 50% 38% -6.5%
all 26 -19.6% -27.2% 50% 38% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 38% -6.5%
10% -34.2% 27% -15.4%
15% -40.5% 23% -23.6%
20% -46.4% 19% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized+$78
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage34d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Down 40¢ 46¢ $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$6 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $186 +$94 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $85 −$83 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$35 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $70 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $18 +$10 +58%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1 $0 -13%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $3 $0 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 03 $22 $0 +1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 29 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 24 $3 +$1 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? May 23 $5 −$5 -93%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qual May 21 $5 +$1 +19%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards May 21 $1 $0 +36%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 18 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 18 $1 +$1 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $105 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $21 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $52 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $16 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $21 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $280 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $42 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $144 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.25 · official $128.83 · 57 history records