Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

96
0x968f…9e6f
sports · 33 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$182 +30%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$178 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$243
Realized+$178
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions10
Markets (closed)20 / 33
History coverage2d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 10 History 20 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$178
7 days+$178
14 days+$178
30 days+$178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 49¢ 50¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 64¢ 62¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 53¢ 52¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Over 16¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Over $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Over $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Under $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 22¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Under $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 63¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 26¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 $0 -8%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 $0 -15%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 -10%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$33 +650%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$14 +140%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $60 +$13 +22%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $40 +$22 +55%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $21 +$122 +596%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $30 +$15 +50%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $41 −$20 -49%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 67% +$144
other 28% +$33
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 BUY Over $1 32m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over $2 32m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 56m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $90 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes $2 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes $2 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes $2 1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $3 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Will Nether BUY $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $30 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $3 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 16¢ $5 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Net BUY 16¢ $10 3h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $51 7h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia 13¢ $5 8h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $10 8h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $60 8h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $10 9h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 10h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 10h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 64¢ $20 12h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 64¢ $20 12h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $20 12h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 12h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $5 12h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+41.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +56.8% +41.9% 40% 40% +41.7%
≤30d 20 +56.8% +41.9% 40% 40% +41.7%
≤90d 20 +56.8% +41.9% 40% 40% +41.7%
all 20 +56.8% +41.9% 40% 40% +41.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +41.9% 40% +41.7%
10% ← realistic here +28.3% 35% +28.2%
15% +15.9% 35% +15.8%
20% +4.5% 30% +4.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.03 · official $263.03 · 48 history records