Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:43:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
96 0x9699…7ae7 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 611d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$2 (+2%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate75%15W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$4
tech 20% −$2
politics 9% $0
world 4% $0
crypto 3% +$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 +0.6% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 20 +1.2% -8.4% 75% 20% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 20% -7.5%
10% -17.2% 20% -16.4%
15% -25.2% 20% -24.5%
20% -32.5% 15% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

611d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses15 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage611d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by June 30, 2026? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by April 30? Apr 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.5 on April 17, 2026? Apr 15 $2 $0 +1%
Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31? Mar 30 $1 $0 +0%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Mar 29 $1 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together in 2025? Dec 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? Dec 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market Dec 24 $32 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 5AM ET Dec 20 $1 +$1 +96%
>3.1 million TSA travelers any day November 23-30? Dec 11 $1 +$1 +138%
Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 25+ times during the next Prime Mi Nov 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bill Ackman say "Election" during the X Space event on November 1 Nov 26 $1 +$1 +138%
Will Target (TGT) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November Nov 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season? Nov 13 $5 +$2 +47%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of November 10 above $270? Nov 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 13d
Will Drake officially release Iceman by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 36d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $2 45d
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 46d
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on May 1, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 46d
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.5 on April 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 60d
Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 76d
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 77d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $2 166d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes $1 167d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes $11 167d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $12 167d
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes $0 170d
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes $10 170d
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes $10 170d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market SELL Yes $0 172d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market SELL Yes $10 172d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market BUY Yes $11 172d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market SELL Yes $0 173d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market SELL Yes $10 173d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market BUY Yes $10 173d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market SELL Yes $0 176d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market SELL Yes $11 176d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market BUY Yes $11 176d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 5AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 186d
>3.1 million TSA travelers any day November 23-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 197d
Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 25+ times during the next Prime Mi BUY Yes 58¢ $1 200d
Will Target (TGT) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 49¢ $1 208d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.20 · official $18.20 (match) · 38 history records