trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -2.3% | -11.6% | 0% | 0% | -12.4% |
| ≤30d | 19 | +0.7% | -8.8% | 21% | 5% | -10.1% |
| ≤90d | 23 | -0.9% | -10.3% | 26% | 4% | -10.0% |
| all | 35 | +8.6% | -1.8% | 37% | 23% | -11.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -1.8% | 23% | -11.6% |
| 10% | -11.2% | 23% | -20.0% |
| 15% | -19.8% | 23% | -27.8% |
| 20% | -27.6% | 20% | -34.9% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? | Jun 25 | $1,747 | −$56 | -3% |
| Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Jun 25 | $4 | $0 | -1% |
| Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 15 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? | Jun 10 | $15 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Elina Svitolina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? | Jun 10 | $10 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? | Jun 10 | $2 | $0 | -3% |
| Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut | Jun 09 | $110 | +$41 | +37% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June | Jun 09 | $817 | +$7 | +1% |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | Jun 08 | $1,042 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet | Jun 08 | $1,377 | −$1 | -0% |
| No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin | Jun 07 | $213 | −$1 | -0% |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m | Jun 07 | $755 | −$26 | -3% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? | Jun 04 | $5 | $0 | -9% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | Jun 04 | $9 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Jun 04 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? | Jun 04 | $231 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | May 31 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | May 28 | $218 | −$3 | -1% |
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | May 28 | $111 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in May? | May 24 | $3 | −$1 | -44% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | May 24 | $309 | $0 | +0% |
| Bucks vs. 76ers | Apr 14 | $13 | +$1 | +8% |
| Thunder vs. Clippers | Apr 11 | $22 | $0 | +2% |
| Canadiens vs. Senators | Mar 12 | $151 | −$151 | -100% |
| Pistons vs. Spurs | Mar 10 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| Cavaliers vs. Thunder | Feb 23 | $33 | +$33 | +98% |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | Feb 15 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Raptors vs. Warriors | Jan 25 | $21 | +$30 | +144% |
| Sharks vs. Capitals | Jan 20 | $4 | +$7 | +170% |
| Lions vs. Bears | Jan 15 | $21 | −$21 | -100% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | Jan 03 | $45 | +$28 | +61% |
| Bucks vs. Nets | Dec 16 | $34 | −$34 | -100% |
| Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Dec 11 | $24 | +$15 | +61% |
| Stars vs. Kraken | Nov 30 | $17 | +$14 | +82% |
| Warriors vs. Magic | Nov 20 | $5 | +$10 | +203% |