Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:40:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96a6…6880 crypto 280 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$136 (-4%) realized −$136 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate86%242W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$131
14 days−$136
30 days−$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$109
sports 16% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -16.0% -24.0% 82% 0% -27.0%
≤30d 277 -3.8% -12.9% 86% 8% -13.7%
≤90d 280 -3.7% -12.9% 86% 8% -13.7%
all 280 -3.7% -12.9% 86% 8% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 8% -13.7%
10% -21.2% 4% -22.0%
15% -28.8% 2% -29.5%
20% -35.8% 1% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$136
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses242 / 38
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)280 / 280
History coverage30d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 280 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +5%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $90 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $193 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $90 −$90 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $90 +$3 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $273 +$7 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $91 −$17 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $90 +$5 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $90 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $90 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $90 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $50 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 27 $6 −$6 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 27 $6 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 27 $6 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 27 $5 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 27 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 27 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 27 $8 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 27 $8 −$5 -64%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 27 $8 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 27 $8 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 27 $8 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 27 $8 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 27 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 27 $8 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 27 $8 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $51 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $50 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $90 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka SELL England 99¢ $197 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka BUY England 97¢ $193 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $90 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $90 6d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $28 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 3¢ $1 7d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 96¢ $278 7d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 7¢ $2 7d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 93¢ $271 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $72 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $91 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 7d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 731 history records