Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:09:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96ac…2c21 sports 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 89d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$27,296 (-18%) realized −$26,736 · open −$560
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate15%20W / 117L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,398per market
Trades / day36.9pace
Fees−$1,419est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2,545now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 90d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$2,536
world 18% −$1,087
other 6% +$1,520
finance 6% −$1,014
tech 2% −$445
weather 1% −$192
crypto 0% −$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-43.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -91.9% -92.7% 0% 0% -75.7%
≤30d 47 -79.8% -81.8% 4% 0% -54.3%
≤90d 137 -37.5% -43.5% 15% 4% -13.5%
all 137 -37.5% -43.5% 15% 4% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.5% 4% -13.5%
10% -48.9% 2% -21.7%
15% ← realistic here -53.8% 1% -29.3%
20% -58.3% 1% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$1,238) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
22.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$422 vs −$136 · ×3.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$2,545
Realized−$26,736
Unrealized−$560
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses20 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$1,419
Open positions9
Markets (closed)137 / 111
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$1,398
Trades / day36.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? Yes 57¢ 68¢ $1,230 $1,456 +$226 (+18%)
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? No 45¢ 32¢ $957 $696 −$261 (-27%)
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? No 58¢ 56¢ $290 $282 −$8 (-3%)
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30? Yes 22¢ 84¢ $11 $42 +$31 (+282%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $24 $34 +$10 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 27? No 36¢ 6¢ $90 $16 −$74 (-82%)
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? No 4¢ 3¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-14%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Yes 62¢ 1¢ $196 $3 −$193 (-99%)
Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027? Yes 34¢ 1¢ $61 $2 −$59 (-96%)
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? No 44¢ 8¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Jun 27 $199 −$199 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 27 $29 −$29 -100%
Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 46m and 50m? Jun 27 $197 −$197 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Odds Nasralla wins Honduras presidential election Sunday overt 50%? Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 38 and 42 million views on day 2 Jun 27 $33 −$33 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 42 and 46 million views on day 2 Jun 27 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump say "Green New Scam" while addressing the nation on Decembe Jun 27 $60 −$60 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Jun 27 $2 −$82 -3701%
Will Trump say "Venezuela" while addressing the nation on December 17? Jun 27 $347 −$347 -100%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on January 27? Jun 27 $405 −$405 -100%
Will Lot 11 Gustav Klimt’s “Blumenwiese (Blooming Meadow)” sell for 75 Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on January 23? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will ZKsync win 2025 Uniswap Cup? Jun 27 $364 −$561 -154%
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 28-31, 2026? Jun 27 $272 −$254 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 27 $258 −$258 -100%
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19? Jun 27 $287 −$300 -105%
Will Trump say "Putin" or "Zelenskyy" while addressing the nation on D Jun 27 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Ethereum Foundation win 2025 Uniswap Cup? Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" while addressing t Jun 27 $65 −$65 -100%
Will GOAT be the highest grossing movie this weekend? Jun 27 $269 −$269 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 27 $0 −$256 -80851%
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 24-27, 2026? Jun 27 $103 −$104 -101%
Will Wuthering Heights be the highest grossing movie this weekend? Jun 27 $135 −$135 -100%
Will there be 14 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jun 27 $76 −$76 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Jun 27 $140 −$211 -150%
Will Lot 8 Gustav Klimt’s “Bildnis Elisabeth Lederer (Portrait of Elis Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 20? Jun 27 $74 −$61 -82%
Will Trump and Mohammed bin Salman shake hands for 15 seconds or more Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on November Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? Jun 27 $48 −$48 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $838 −$81 -10%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 26 $12 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 21 $526 −$5 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 21? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $206 −$6 -3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1,072 −$53 -5%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? Jun 12 $11 +$1 +6%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? Jun 12 $18 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $1,861 −$226 -12%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $561 −$3 -0%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 4? Jun 11 $254 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Jun 03 $483 −$259 -54%
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? May 25 $928 −$90 -10%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? May 23 $681 −$61 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 54¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 66¢ $54 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 68¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 68¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 68¢ $11 1h
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? BUY No 58¢ $290 1h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? BUY No 31¢ $62 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 30¢ $2 1h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? BUY Yes 70¢ $300 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 30¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 30¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 30¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 30¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 30¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 30¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 30¢ $3 1h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? BUY No 35¢ $10 1h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? BUY No 35¢ $130 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 30¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 68¢ $1 2h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? BUY Yes 66¢ $132 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 30¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 68¢ $33 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 63¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 62¢ $27 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 40¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 40¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 40¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 40¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 40¢ $17 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,545.05 · official $2,546.55 (match) · 3500 history records