Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:58:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96ad…2431 crypto 239 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16 (-2%) realized −$17 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%84W / 151L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$145
sports 4% −$25
other 4% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -22.5% -29.9% 36% 36% -12.1%
≤30d 123 -23.8% -31.1% 33% 33% -18.3%
≤90d 235 -24.0% -31.3% 36% 34% -23.1%
all 235 -24.0% -31.3% 36% 34% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.3% 34% -23.1%
10% -37.8% 30% -30.4%
15% -43.9% 29% -37.1%
20% -49.4% 25% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses84 / 151
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)235 / 239
History coverage63d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $13 $13 +$1 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 50¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$9 +292%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$12 +364%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$6 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$33 +194%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $8 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $6 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $8 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $15 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.71 · official $26.51 (match) · 562 history records