Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:32:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96b6…8547 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 377d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$1
world 34% +$1
sports 17% +$7
politics 6% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.1% -8.6% 43% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 18 +9.4% -1.1% 44% 6% -9.2%
≤90d 18 +9.4% -1.1% 44% 6% -9.2%
all 41 +0.2% -9.4% 39% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -9.0%
10% -18.1% 2% -17.7%
15% -26.0% 2% -25.6%
20% -33.2% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

377d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage377d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 17¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $28 +$2 +7%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $28 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $28 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $28 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $28 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $27 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $28 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $15 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $18 −$2 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $30 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $7 $0 -5%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $4 $0 +1%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 10 $2 $0 +1%
Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 8.5 Mar 09 $218 +$7 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $149 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 07 $218 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 01 $6 $0 -1%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 25 $31 $0 +1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 22 $7 $0 -2%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 20 $5 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Jun 20 $1 $0 +9%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jun 17 $6 $0 -1%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 16 $19 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 16 $23 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -74%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? Jun 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Jun 12 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $31 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $2 5h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $29 5h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $11 9h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $17 9h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $4 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $23 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $28 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $28 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $28 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $28 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $28 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $31 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $31 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $28 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $27 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $29 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $31 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $31 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $26 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.62 · official $30.80 (match) · 134 history records