Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:20:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
96 0x96b7…0abf crypto 27 markets active 6d ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,644 (+69%) realized +$3,644 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate88%23W / 3L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$3,057
other 11% +$592
politics 0% −$5
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 1 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
all 26 +23.2% +11.4% 88% 27% +52.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.4% 27% +52.7%
10% +0.8% 27% +38.1%
15% -9.0% 27% +24.7%
20% -17.9% 27% +12.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +46% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$159 vs −$2 · ×67.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×778.8 per $1 lost it wins $778.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$3,644
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses23 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage454d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 04 $7 $0 +1%
DAX (DAX) Up or Down on January 20? Jan 21 $303 +$303 +100%
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on January 14? Jan 15 $194 +$194 +100%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on January 5? Jan 06 $95 +$95 +100%
Solana Up or Down - December 18, 11AM ET Dec 19 $1,600 +$1,600 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 17, 5AM ET Dec 17 $1,617 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 16, 6AM ET Dec 17 $820 +$820 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 15, 5AM ET Dec 16 $421 +$421 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 9, 12AM ET Dec 09 $216 +$216 +100%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 23? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98000 on May 16? May 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $93000 on May 9? May 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1400 and $1500 on Apr 25? Apr 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Apr 25? Apr 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90000 on April 4? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $3,500.00 again by March 31? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? Mar 23 $1 $0 +0%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 15 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 82¢ $7 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 82¢ $7 79d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $7 83d
DAX (DAX) Up or Down on January 20? BUY Down 50¢ $303 151d
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on January 14? BUY Up 50¢ $6 154d
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on January 14? BUY Up 50¢ $188 154d
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on January 5? BUY Up 50¢ $89 164d
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on January 5? BUY Up 50¢ $6 164d
Solana Up or Down - December 18, 11AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1,600 181d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 17, 5AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1,617 182d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1,617 182d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $577 183d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $244 183d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 15, 5AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $406 184d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 15, 5AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 184d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 9, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $177 190d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 9, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $39 190d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes $5 241d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 390d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98000 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 397d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $93000 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $1 404d
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 414d
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 414d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1400 and $1500 on Apr 25? BUY No 100¢ $1 418d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Apr 25? BUY No 100¢ $1 418d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 425d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 425d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90000 on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $1 439d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 446d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.98 · official $12.98 (match) · 63 history records