Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:33:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96be…14a7 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$161 (-67%) realized −$161 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%7W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$46
14 days−$5
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$39
sports 21% −$50
culture 12% −$28
crypto 9% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +55.5% +40.7% 62% 62% +67.6%
≤30d 17 -2.4% -11.7% 41% 41% -49.2%
≤90d 20 -17.0% -24.9% 35% 35% -55.2%
all 20 -17.0% -24.9% 35% 35% -55.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 35% -55.2%
10% -32.1% 30% -59.5%
15% -38.7% 25% -63.4%
20% -44.7% 25% -67.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$161
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses7 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage33d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 23 $11 +$44 +388%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 22 $10 +$2 +18%
Tomáš Souček: 1+ goals Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $5 +$7 +137%
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +128%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 31 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $71 −$69 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 30 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 30 $5 +$4 +84%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k? May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k? May 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k? May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $55 1h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $11 5h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 39¢ $12 5h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $10 14h
Tomáš Souček: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $2 4d
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $10 4d
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $12 5d
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $5 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 5d
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $5 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 23d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 23d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 23d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 15¢ $50 25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $50 29d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 32d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 32d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records