Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:59:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96c4…e168 weather 953 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d only
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$372 (-1%) realized −$456 · open +$84
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate87%846W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day59.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5,478now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,189
7 days−$936
14 days−$974
30 days−$1,062
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$447
crypto 1% −$121
tech 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 199 -27.1% -34.1% 57% 4% -15.7%
≤30d 710 -7.6% -16.4% 84% 3% -10.9%
≤90d 971 -4.0% -13.1% 87% 3% -10.4%
all 971 -4.0% -13.1% 87% 3% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 3% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 1% -19.0%
15% -29.0% 1% -26.8%
20% -36.0% 1% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$23 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$5,478
Realized−$456
Unrealized+$84
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses846 / 125
Open positions64
Markets (closed)971 / 953
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$78
Trades / day59.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 64 History 971 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 25? No 96¢ 100¢ $200 $208 +$8 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 84°F or higher on June 25? No 95¢ 100¢ $198 $207 +$9 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 25? No 96¢ 100¢ $200 $207 +$8 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 25? No 97¢ 100¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 25? No 97¢ 100¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 25? No 98¢ 100¢ $200 $203 +$3 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 26? No 96¢ 96¢ $198 $199 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 26? No 99¢ 99¢ $199 $199 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 25? No 98¢ 100¢ $188 $191 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 26? No 97¢ 99¢ $172 $176 +$4 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 26? No 98¢ 100¢ $173 $175 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on June 25? No 99¢ 100¢ $163 $165 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or higher on June 25? No 99¢ 100¢ $155 $157 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 25? No 98¢ 100¢ $120 $123 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 26? No 98¢ 98¢ $119 $119 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 41°C on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $109 $111 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 26? No 98¢ 99¢ $109 $110 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $109 $110 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C or higher on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $108 $110 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 40°C on June 26? No 98¢ 99¢ $108 $109 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 25? No 97¢ 100¢ $105 $108 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $102 $102 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 26? No 98¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 11? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 10? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 15? Jun 26 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 11? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on April 8? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 16? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on April 12? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ap Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 14? Jun 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on April 8? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 8? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on April 15? Jun 26 $1 $0 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 9? Jun 26 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 13? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on April 9? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 14? Jun 26 $0 +$1 +4964%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on April 13? Jun 26 $0 $0 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 10? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 10? Jun 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on April 14? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -149%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 8? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 9 Jun 26 $7 −$5 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C or higher on May 11? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 12? Jun 26 $0 +$3 +574%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on April 26? Jun 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 70°F or higher on Apr Jun 26 $174 −$174 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on April 12? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on May 3? Jun 26 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 13? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on April 16? Jun 26 $17 −$37 -218%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 9? Jun 26 $11 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C or higher on April 9? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on April 25? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 8? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 9? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 9? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ap Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 3? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on April 13? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on April 10? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on April 13? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ap Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 13? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on May 5? Jun 26 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 9? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 12? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C or higher on April 9? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on April 13? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 12? Jun 26 $4 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 28? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $25 36m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $12 37m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $20 42m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $55 54m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 26? BUY No 89¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $54 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 26? BUY No 89¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $55 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $54 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 26? BUY No 94¢ $8 7h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 26? BUY No 96¢ $55 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $55 8h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 26? BUY No 96¢ $9 13h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 26? BUY No 95¢ $20 14h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 26? BUY No 95¢ $54 14h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 26? BUY No 96¢ $53 14h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 26? BUY No 86¢ $16 14h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $54 14h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C or below on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $20 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $54 15h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 26? BUY No 85¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 26? BUY No 85¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 26? BUY No 90¢ $14 17h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $23 17h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $13 17h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $54 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,477.90 · official $5,477.90 (match) · 3500 history records