Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
96 0x96c4…8014 sports 18 markets active 6d ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$103 (-13%) realized −$103 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$52
finance 29% +$3
other 10% −$59
crypto 10% +$11
politics 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 33% 0% -8.6%
all 18 -15.2% -23.3% 39% 28% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 28% -20.9%
10% -30.6% 22% -28.5%
15% -37.3% 22% -35.4%
20% -43.5% 22% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$17 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage206d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 26 $16 $0 -0%
Jazz vs. Rockets Apr 04 $208 +$2 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Apr 03 $232 +$3 +1%
Penguins vs. Hurricanes Mar 11 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Mar 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from February 20 to February 27, 2 Feb 28 $46 −$46 -100%
Michigan Wolverines vs. Purdue Boilermakers Feb 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 23? Jan 26 $78 +$11 +14%
Knicks vs. Pistons Jan 11 $16 +$21 +133%
Magic vs. Trail Blazers Dec 30 $20 +$19 +92%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Hurricanes Dec 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Wild vs. Jets Nov 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets Nov 28 $10 +$10 +100%
Knicks vs. Heat Nov 20 $25 +$21 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $6 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $6 5d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $8 5d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $8 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 12d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 12d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 52d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 99¢ $16 65d
Jazz vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 99¢ $208 74d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $232 80d
Penguins vs. Hurricanes BUY Penguins 36¢ $29 99d
Penguins vs. Hurricanes BUY Penguins 36¢ $29 99d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $13 104d
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from February 20 to February 27, 2 BUY Yes 42¢ $46 111d
Michigan Wolverines vs. Purdue Boilermakers BUY Purdue Boilermakers 43¢ $23 120d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 23? BUY No 87¢ $78 145d
Knicks vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 43¢ $16 163d
Magic vs. Trail Blazers BUY Magic 52¢ $20 175d
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 192d
Maple Leafs vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 65¢ $20 195d
Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets BUY Maple Leafs 50¢ $10 203d
Wild vs. Jets BUY Jets 55¢ $25 206d
Knicks vs. Heat BUY Heat 54¢ $25 212d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records