Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:26:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
96 0x96c5…4dd9 politics 45 markets active 3h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$182 (-3%) realized −$188 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate45%19W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$1
other 33% +$44
politics 4% −$27
tech 1% +$5
crypto 0% +$8
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 +3.0% -6.8% 100% 0% -6.8%
all 42 -23.3% -30.6% 45% 33% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 33% -8.5%
10% -37.3% 29% -17.3%
15% -43.3% 29% -25.3%
20% -48.9% 21% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$237
Realized−$188
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses19 / 23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)42 / 45
History coverage599d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 52¢ 56¢ $156 $166 +$10 (+7%)
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $75 $70 −$5 (-6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 14 $1,561 +$47 +3%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 03 $10 −$4 -35%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Mar 03 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 03 $10 +$4 +39%
US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline? Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 27 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Nov 27 $5 +$8 +163%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
TikTok sale announced before May? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Jun 03 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April? Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March? Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting? Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March? Feb 18 $5 +$6 +127%
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2024? Jan 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Biden finish his term? Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will ChatGPT have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Gold close over $3,000 at the end of 2024? Jan 22 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Elon be worth $500b by Trump inauguration? Jan 22 $5 +$5 +92%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Dec 25 $71 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Dec 25 $10 +$13 +130%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024? Dec 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29? Dec 25 $5 +$3 +64%
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election? Dec 25 $10 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Dec 25 $10 +$9 +94%
Trump's November 26 sentencing pushed back? Nov 25 $5 +$4 +72%
House control after 2024 election? Nov 25 $10 +$6 +59%
OpenAI becomes a for-profit before April 2025? Nov 25 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Trump say "Kamala" in his speech after the election is called? Nov 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Nov 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet? Nov 17 $10 +$9 +92%
Will a Democrat win Washington Presidential Election? Nov 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? Nov 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will a Republican win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump wins every swing state? Nov 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will a Republican win Oklahoma Presidential Election? Nov 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will a Republican win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? Nov 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $299 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $300 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $300 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $300 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $298 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $300 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $298 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $300 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $299 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $300 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $299 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $300 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $298 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $300 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $298 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $300 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $81 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $222 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $500 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $499 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $500 3h
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $77 3h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $158 3h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $1,608 44d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $1,561 116d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 116d
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 46¢ $14 116d
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 171d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 171d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.01 · official $237.00 (match) · 166 history records