Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:48:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96c6…5188 crypto 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 562d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate69%44W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$8
crypto 10% +$4
sports 3% −$25
tech 2% +$1
politics 1% −$1
world 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 64 -1.9% -11.3% 69% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 2% -9.9%
10% -19.8% 2% -18.5%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

562d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses44 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage562d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $66 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? Jun 02 $59 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? Apr 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 01 $53 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Mar 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $40 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $4.00 before 2026? Jan 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in December? Jan 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $260 in November? Dec 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in October? Nov 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Sep 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Sep 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Aug 02 $44 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jul 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 200% and 300% on April 3 May 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in April? May 03 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 03 $14 $0 +1%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 21 $5,922 −$6 -0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 01 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 180-199 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 by February 28 2025? Mar 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 by February 28 2025? Mar 14 $13 +$3 +22%
Will $Trump FDV be $45-50b on Feb 1? Feb 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will $Trump FDV be $35-40b on Feb 1? Feb 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the Western Conference? Jan 25 $24 $0 -0%
Will Girona FC win La Liga? Jan 23 $19 $0 -0%
Will Sturm Graz win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 26 $24 −$4 -17%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 26 $27 −$4 -17%
Everton wins the Premier League? Dec 26 $18 −$5 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $66 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 30d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? BUY No 100¢ $59 31d
Will Solana reach $130 in April? BUY No 100¢ $18 61d
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? BUY No 100¢ $50 63d
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? BUY No 100¢ $3 91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $15 92d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $53 92d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $10 122d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $12 122d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $48 123d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $15 150d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $40 151d
Will XRP reach $4.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 181d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in December? BUY No 100¢ $14 181d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 182d
Will Solana reach $260 in November? BUY No 100¢ $49 212d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in October? BUY No 100¢ $17 241d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 243d
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 272d
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $21 272d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $30 274d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 100¢ $6 302d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $17 303d
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? BUY No 100¢ $43 303d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $14 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? BUY No 99¢ $44 335d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $30 362d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? BUY No 100¢ $15 365d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.48 · official $65.48 (match) · 130 history records