Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:21:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96c7…60bb world 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+1%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate34%30W / 57L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$25
14 days+$27
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$34
other 22% −$6
politics 20% −$6
sports 11% −$2
economics 4% $0
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +12.1% +1.4% 40% 10% -4.4%
≤30d 27 +15.7% +4.7% 48% 15% -6.4%
≤90d 80 +4.8% -5.2% 38% 8% -8.5%
all 87 -1.4% -10.8% 34% 7% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 7% -8.8%
10% -19.3% 3% -17.6%
15% -27.1% 3% -25.5%
20% -34.2% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses30 / 57
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage526d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 54¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $74 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $109 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $62 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $64 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $22 +$27 +126%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $14 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $47 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $34 −$3 -8%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $48 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $64 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $84 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $31 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $59 +$2 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $3 $0 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $78 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $16 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $2 $0 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $37 +$5 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $46 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $68 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $40 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $9 +$2 +21%
Will Alberta join the US? May 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $3 −$1 -38%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $11 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $34 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $154 −$1 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $8 $0 +4%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $154 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $3 $0 -5%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $47 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $5 $0 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $25 −$2 -9%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1 $0 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 15 $6 +$1 +11%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $74 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $74 3h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 29h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 29h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 29h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 29h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 11¢ $0 37h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $58 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 49¢ $11 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 49¢ $50 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $56 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 70¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 70¢ $29 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 70¢ $26 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $13 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $50 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $15 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $16 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $15 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $22 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $1 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $5 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 17¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $46 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.48 · official $0.00 (match) · 366 history records