Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:22:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
96 0x96ca…5a71 sports 1192 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$24,725 (-8%) realized −$25,319 · open +$594
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate58%682W / 489L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Fees−$2,941est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$5,050now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 87d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$15,352
other 23% +$4,911
crypto 1% −$1,867
world 0% +$13
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +10.3% -0.2% 58% 44% +4.0%
≤30d 279 -13.6% -21.8% 46% 39% -10.9%
≤90d 1171 -9.3% -18.0% 58% 35% -13.5%
all 1171 -9.3% -18.0% 58% 35% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 35% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 31% -21.7%
15% -33.0% 28% -29.3%
20% -39.6% 25% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$253 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$5,050
Realized−$25,319
Unrealized+$594
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses682 / 489
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$2,941
Open positions18
Markets (closed)1171 / 1192
History coverage87d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 1171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 74¢ $1,410 $2,032 +$622 (+44%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1,000 $1,139 +$139 (+14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1,002 $1,005 +$3 (+0%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 100¢ $100 $384 +$284 (+284%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 42¢ 12¢ $625 $171 −$454 (-73%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Over 91¢ 100¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Josh Hokit 80¢ 78¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ 78¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Over 63¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 47¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Kyle Daukaus 25¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Seattle Mariners 55¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 49¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $506 +$341 +67%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 +$15 +14%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $1,015 +$947 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,200 +$6 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $100 +$1 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $200 +$3 +2%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $508 −$79 -16%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $178 −$178 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $463 −$463 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,130 −$1,130 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $112 −$112 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $202 −$202 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,011 +$576 +57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 +$12 +12%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $102 +$125 +122%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $203 +$175 +86%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $203 +$214 +105%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $203 −$203 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $221 −$221 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $213 −$213 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $312 −$312 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $113 +$609 +541%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $203 +$241 +119%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $203 +$182 +90%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $320 +$298 +93%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,016 +$1,158 +114%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $264 +$289 +109%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $111 +$78 +70%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $255 +$403 +158%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 11? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $111 +$73 +66%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $215 +$209 +97%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $325 −$64 -20%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $100 +$16 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $213 25m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 29m
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 17¢ $26 30m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 30m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $101 51m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $101 51m
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $102 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $100 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,015 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 9¢ $10 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 34¢ $102 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $506 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $100 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $101 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 51¢ $1,015 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,016 7h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $508 8h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 44¢ $421 8h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 46¢ $7 8h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 100¢ $100 8h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 8h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $101 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $100 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $100 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $100 9h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 50¢ $508 9h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $102 9h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 49¢ $102 9h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $101 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,050.25 · official $5,050.25 (match) · 3500 history records