Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:06:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
96 0x96ca…cb5b other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$178 (+18%) realized +$179 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR89%break-even
Win rate89%8W / 1L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$203
sports 31% −$43
crypto 2% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +89%
net ROI/market (all)+17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +29.5% +17.2% 89% 89% +13.6%
≤30d 9 +29.5% +17.2% 89% 89% +13.6%
≤90d 9 +29.5% +17.2% 89% 89% +13.6%
all 9 +29.5% +17.2% 89% 89% +13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.2% 89% +13.6%
10% +6.0% 67% +2.8%
15% -4.3% 67% -7.2%
20% -13.7% 33% -16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$99 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.74 per $1 lost it wins $2.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized+$179
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses8 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$44 +44%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $101 +$36 +36%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $100 −$99 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$11 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $201 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 13h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 4¢ $1 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 17h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $100 17h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $101 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 39h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $164 43h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.89 · official $196.67 · 19 history records