Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:02:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
96 0x96cf…7e24 world 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate48%23W / 25L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% $0
other 20% −$3
sports 10% +$11
politics 9% +$1
crypto 7% +$1
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 29% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 17 -0.8% -10.3% 24% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 17 -0.8% -10.3% 24% 0% -9.5%
all 48 +0.5% -9.1% 48% 4% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 4% -8.3%
10% -17.8% 4% -17.1%
15% -25.7% 2% -25.1%
20% -33.0% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.85 per $1 lost it wins $2.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses23 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage486d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $33 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $29 $0 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $7 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 -14%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $17 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $29 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $31 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $64 +$1 +1%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Dec 15 $2 $0 +5%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $5 $0 +5%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? May 27 $18 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 French Open? May 27 $12 $0 -3%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 25 $2 $0 +3%
Will 'The Brave' win Crunchyroll's Best Anime Song Award for 2025? May 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 24 $17 $0 +3%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $19 $0 +2%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $1 $0 +31%
Will Randy Fine win by 15-20%? Apr 04 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 04 $19 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "bigly" by March 28? Mar 25 $21 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 24 $20 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 23 $3 −$1 -34%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or higher on March 16? Mar 15 $20 $0 +0%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will Southampton win on 2025-03-08? Mar 12 $18 +$1 +5%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March 15? Mar 07 $19 $0 +1%
Eastern Washington vs. Montana Mar 03 $19 $0 +0%
Florida State vs. Virginia Mar 03 $18 $0 +0%
Louisiana vs. Troy Mar 03 $10 +$11 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $33 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $33 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $33 10h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $33 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $5 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $5 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $18 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $15 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $33 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $33 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $33 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $30 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $29 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $30 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $30 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 13d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 13d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 13d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $0 13d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $0 13d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $0 13d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $0 13d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $1 13d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $16 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $17 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 148 history records