Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96d7…cc8f other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$579 (-14%) realized −$588 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%3W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$1,178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$196
7 days−$1,001
14 days−$534
30 days−$534
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$109
other 37% −$729
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -90.2% -91.2% 0% 0% -74.2%
≤30d 22 +16.1% +5.1% 14% 14% -31.6%
≤90d 22 +16.1% +5.1% 14% 14% -31.6%
all 23 +11.1% +0.5% 13% 13% -34.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 13% -34.0%
10% -9.1% 13% -40.3%
15% -17.9% 13% -46.1%
20% -25.9% 13% -51.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +106% → late -76% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$495 vs −$106 · ×4.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$1,178
Realized−$588
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses3 / 20
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions5
Markets (closed)23 / 29
History coverage528d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 49¢ 76¢ $296 $456 +$160 (+54%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 37¢ 24¢ $490 $311 −$179 (-36%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes $194 $226 +$33 (+17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $120 $129 +$9 (+8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $70 $55 −$15 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $97 −$96 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $44 −$43 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $512 −$112 -22%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $305 −$300 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 10 $102 −$102 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 10 $256 −$256 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $162 +$102 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow? Jun 07 $98 −$98 -100%
Texans vs. Chargers Jun 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025? Jun 07 $110 −$110 -100%
Rams vs. Falcons Jun 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be purple? Jun 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be red/pink? Jun 07 $56 −$56 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $57 +$1,267 +2237%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Jun 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the Bengals win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $499 46m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $300 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $199 2h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 39¢ $97 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 16¢ $103 13h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $44 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 43¢ $203 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $51 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 18¢ $400 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? A BUY $103 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $305 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights $51 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $512 8d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY San Francisco Giants 46¢ $102 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli $51 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 20¢ $102 10d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 10d
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 61¢ $162 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 25¢ $102 10d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 51¢ $301 10d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 52¢ $593 10d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 16¢ $429 10d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes $57 10d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots $40 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,178.06 · official $1,178.06 (match) · 72 history records